Forecasts are an important tool for reducing the impact of extreme events and avoiding, or at least reducing, damages and loss of life. As an example, the seven day forecast are a key input for agencies, assisting in the lead-up, during and recovery from events such as dangerous fire weather episodes and heatwaves. These forecasts have proven themselves in a number of recent fire and heatwave events, and have been credited with triggering responses that have saved property and lives.

Working with a number of agencies the Bureau of Meteorology is developing an operational forecasting capability for multiweek to seasonal fire weather forecasts. This paper will describe the predictability and prediction of climatic conditions on weeks to months, with a particular emphasis on periods of elevated fire risk. The results suggest skilled forecasts will be possible beyond seven days allowing better management of pre- and within season fire weather variability.  In the future we anticipate that risk and management decisions will be supported by a seamless forecasting services from the coming hours to some seasons ahead.