Victorian Climate Projections 2019: turning projection datasets into projections — Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society

Victorian Climate Projections 2019: turning projection datasets into projections (#194)

John M Clarke 1 , Marcus Thatcher 1 , Michael Grose 1 , Vanessa Hernaman 1 , Craig Heady 1 , Tony Rafter 1 , Vanessa Round 1 , Claire Trenham 1 , Tim Erwin 1 , Mandy Hopkins 1 , Brenda Lin 2
  1. CSIRO, Aspendale, VIC, Australia
  2. CSIRO, Brisbane, Qld, Australia

Recently, the Victorian Government released the latest climate projections for Victoria. For this work, the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning and Wine Australia funded new dynamical downscaling at 5 km resolution. Uniquely, the Victorian Climate Projections 2019 (VCP19) project combines the new modelling with pre-existing results from global climate model (GCM) and multiple regional climate model (RCM) simulations.

 Evaluation of the new modelling demonstrated that the high-resolution results provided significant new insights in some parts of Victoria. Additionally, we explored new ways of presenting the projections to make the most of the multiple lines of evidence available. These included framing the results in terms of the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5 & 2.0 degrees warming compared to pre-industrial times.

 A range of guidance material was also developed to help users of the projections make sense of the multiple data sources available for the State. A series of training workshops were rolled out to government staff in metropolitan and regional areas. The results are available through some of the Climate Change in Australia tools and a range of application-ready, relative change and raw model datasets are available for direct download. Importantly, ongoing support is being provided through a ‘help desk’ and more guidance material will be added over time, including case studies.

 Here, we outline the project and present key findings along with a snapshot of the technical and guidance resources.

#amos2020