Tropical Cyclone (TC) Alby swept past southwest WA in early April 1978, and remains a memorable storm for emergency managers in this part of Australia. TC Alby caused significant damage from coastal erosion, high winds and bushfires throughout the region. We use a high-resolution, convection-allowing model to simulate the weather events associated with TC Alby. The limited observations from the time make validation challenging, however simulations replicate the extreme winds observed around the coastline.

We extend the analysis to explore the possible impacts to housing that would arise if TC Alby (or a similar storm) were to occur in the present day. Because of the tight circulation of the storm as it passes southwest WA, the swath of damage is confined to areas south of Mandurah. But in those regions, damage becomes significant, as winds along the coast exceed 120 km/h. A slightly more northward trajectory would have major implications for emergency management response and recovery in the Perth metropolitan area.