Sub-seasonal prediction of cyclone formation in the Southern Hemisphere — Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
  1. Schedule
  2. Afternoon Tea + Poster Session 1
  3. Sub-seasonal prediction of cyclone formation in the Southern Hemisphere

Sub-seasonal prediction of cyclone formation in the Southern Hemisphere (#1039)

Paul A Gregory 1 , Frederic Vitart 2 , Rabi Rivett 3 , Andrew Brown 1
  1. Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, VICTORIA, Australia
  2. European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom
  3. Bureau of Meteorology, Perth, Western Australia, Australia

The Bureau of Meteorology's ACCESS global ensemble models have shown skill in forecasting cyclone formation several weeks in advance. In this study we verify forecasts from the Bureau's ACCESS-GE2 Numerical Weather Prediction model and ACCESS-S1 seasonal forecasting model, for the 2017-18 and 2018-19 cyclone seasons. We also verify the forecasts from the ECMWF over the same period. The impact of using lagged ensembles and a multi-model model ensembles on forecast skill is assessed.

#amos2020