The Antarctic sea ice plays a key role in the formation and transformation of bottom, deep and intermediate water masses, and hence is critical in the absorption of carbon and heat into the ocean. The evolution of Antarctic sea ice is a result of complex interactions between the sea ice itself, the ocean and the atmosphere and is crucial for the prediction of future sea ice trends.  

In this study, we look at the impact of ocean-sea ice interactions on sea ice trends and predictability using satellite sea ice data from 1979 to 2017. The analysis confirms previous studies showing that spring sea ice is related to anomalies in subsequent seasons. Furthermore, we identify regions of ‘persistence’, where anomalies continue throughout the summer and autumn, and ‘re-emergence’, where anomalies disappear in summer but re-emerge in autumn. The regions with strong re-emergence patterns occur in the Weddell and Ross seas, while persistence dominates in the Amundsen Sea. To better understand the physical processes driving these re-emergence and persistence patterns, we will analyse a high-resolution ocean-sea ice model.