SHORT-TERM SATELLITE IRRADIANCE FORECAST MODEL — Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society

SHORT-TERM SATELLITE IRRADIANCE FORECAST MODEL (#95)

Abhnil A Prasad 1 , Merlinde J Kay 1
  1. University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia

Solar irradiance is attenuated by clouds significantly reducing the production of solar power. Often, improvements in the short-term predictability of irradiance using satellite irradiance models can assist grid operators in managing intermittent solar generated electricity. In this study, we develop a satellite irradiance model with short-term prediction capabilities using cloud motion vectors. Latest two visible images from Himawari 8/9 satellite are used to derive cloud motion vectors using optical flow estimation techniques. The latest image is advected using the calculated cloud motion vectors to produce a smoothed cloud index map. The cloud index is calculated using the historical satellite data accounting for clear, cloudy and cloud shadow pixels. The cloud index is converted to clear sky index using a historical fitting function from the respective sites. The predicted clear sky index from the cloud index is scaled by the clear sky irradiance to derive the predicated all sky irradiance. The satellite irradiance model will be tested at several sites with sensitivity studies optimising the optical flow parameters and the clear sky models. Subsequently, model evaluations for global horizontal irradiance in different cloud conditions at several time horizons will be reported.

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