Projected changes in rainfall droughts over Australia in CMIP6 simulations — Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society

Projected changes in rainfall droughts over Australia in CMIP6 simulations (#1023)

Anna M Ukkola 1 , Andrew J Pitman 2 , Michael L Roderick 1 , Gab Abramowitz 2 , Martin G De Kauwe 2
  1. Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
  2. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia

Climate change can influence the occurrence of droughts through changes in rainfall amounts and variability. We analyse precipitation droughts over Australia in climate model projections from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We quantify changes in rainfall drought duration and intensity under two emissions scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The projections show robust increases in drought duration and intensity for the southern half of Australia, in particular Victoria and the southwest. The increases are stronger and more robust in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5, and more severe under the higher emissions scenario. In northern Australia, the models do not agree on changes in drought duration but indicate possible increases in drought intensity under the higher SSP5-8.5 emissions scenario. In southwestern and coastal southern Australia, increased droughts are associated with a decline in mean precipitation. Elsewhere, drought projections are more robust than changes in mean precipitation which remain highly uncertain.

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