The changing nature of fire weather in eastern Australia — Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society

The changing nature of fire weather in eastern Australia (#1041)

Robert J B Fawcett 1 , Andrew J Dowdy 1 , David J Martin 1
  1. Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, VICTORIA, Australia

Using a high-resolution (0.05°) gridded dataset of daily forest fire danger index (FFDI) values across Australia for the period 1950 to 2018, we assess changes in bushfire weather for the eastern Australian States of Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria.

The fire weather climatology as measured by the FFDI shows some interesting spatial variations, with September having the highest average daily FFDI (over the last 30 years) around the Gulf of Carpentaria and the coastal fringe of southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales. Over most of Queensland, October has the highest average daily FFDI, but this grades through November and December across southern Queensland and northern New South Wales into January across most of New South Wales and Victoria. The months with the lowest average daily FFDI are February in the tropical north and June or July over Victoria, New South Wales and southern Queensland.

Annual accumulated FFDI has risen over most of the three States, the main exceptions being the northeast of New South Wales and parts of the far west and north of Queensland. In general terms, the rises have been larger in the continental interior. There have been substantial rises (above 15 FFDI points) in the annual highest daily FFDI over central and western Victoria, western New South Wales and southern Queensland. The annual count of FFDI ≥ 25 days has increased by more than 20 days over much of the continental interior of the three States.

There have been some large changes in the average onset of the first FFDI ≥ 25 day of the season in the southern States, particularly in the southeast corner of the continent, signalling an expansion of the fire weather season there.

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