Variation in the ACCESS-S1 seasonal ensemble forecasting system in simulating temperature and precipitation indices relevant to agriculture in southwest Western Australia.  — Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society

Variation in the ACCESS-S1 seasonal ensemble forecasting system in simulating temperature and precipitation indices relevant to agriculture in southwest Western Australia.  (#1016)

Jatin Kala 1 , Rebecca Firth 1
  1. Murdoch University, Murdoch, WA, Australia

The wheatbelt of south-west of Western Australia (SWWA) is home to a world-class agricultural industry and is the nation’s largest grain producing region.  Grain production, which is the largest agricultural sector in the state, delivers approximately $4.6 billion to WA’s economy each year, the majority of which is from cereal crops. These crops are grown from winter to spring and are rain fed. Consequently, crop yields are heavily impacted by inter-annual variations in temperature and precipitation, and hence accurate seasonal and intra-seasonal forecasts are critical to assist in agricultural decision making.  ACCESS-S1 is the Australian Bureau of Meteorology global seasonal and intra-seasonal forecasting system, and a hind-cast of 11 ensemble members is available for a period of 23 years for a period of 6 months into the future. This poster will present preliminary results on the spread within the ensemble for agricultural indices based on temperature and precipitation which are most relevant to cereal grain production in the region. This will act as the first step in investigating improved bias correction and calibration methods to make better use of the forecasts.

#amos2020