A first look at CMIP6 projections for Australia — Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
  1. Schedule
  2. Afternoon Tea + Poster Session 1
  3. A first look at CMIP6 projections for Australia

A first look at CMIP6 projections for Australia (#1020)

Michael Grose 1 , Sugata Narsey 2 , and Co-authors 3
  1. CSIRO, Hobart, TAS, Australia
  2. Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne
  3. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Melbourne

As the CMIP6 ensemble takes shape, particularly the ScenarioMIP simulations, numerous questions naturally arise in regard to Australian climate projections. These include:

  • Are the CMIP6 models ‘better’ than CMIP5 for projecting Australian climate?
  • Are there CMIP6 projections for Australia outside the CMIP5 range?
  • Are the CMIP6 projections any more constrained or more confident than CMIP5?
  • Are there any new useful features included in the models?

Here we have a scan of the emerging CMIP6 ensemble and examine these questions. We cover some of the basics for Australia such as a rapid evaluation and standard projection visualisations. We also examine some of the hot topics in CMIP6 and what they mean for Australia, including the cluster of models with high climate sensitivity and their hotter projection of Australian temperature.

#amos2020