Rapid Warming in the Australian Alps from Observations and NARCliM Projections — Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
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  2. 22(ii). Regional climate projections and applications
  3. Rapid Warming in the Australian Alps from Observations and NARCliM Projections

Rapid Warming in the Australian Alps from Observations and NARCliM Projections (#241)

Fei Ji 1 , Jason Evans 2 , Alejandro Di Luca 2 , Nidhi Nishant 1 , Giovanni Di Virgilio 2 , Stephanie Downes 1 , Kathleen Beyer 1 , Matthew Riley 1
  1. NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  2. Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extreme, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia

The Australian Alps is the highest mountain range in Australia. It comprises only about 0.16% of Australia in size, however, it is an important region in terms of ecosystem, biodiversity, energy generation and winter tourism. Alpine areas are vulnerable to climate change. Observations for this region have shown significant changes in temperature which have already impacted human and natural systems in this region.

In this study, we analyse long-term trends of observed temperature for the Australian Alps and surrounding areas, then use outputs of 12 historical and future Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations (each with three time periods: 1990-2009, 2020-2039, and 2060-2079) from the NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM1.0) project to investigate spatial and seasonal variation of future changes in temperatures, and probability distribution function of temperature at different elevations for three time periods. We also use 6 NARCliM1.5 simulations (each with a time period of 1950-2100) to compare future projections derived from NARCliM1.0 and NARCliM1.5 simulations.

The results show faster warming for the Australian Alps than the surrounding areas, with clear spatial and seasonal variation. The changes in temperature have a good correlation with changes in albedo, which implies faster warming in winter and spring might be dominated by the future changes in natural snowfall and snowpack. More assessments are required to quantify potential impacts of rapid warming in Australian Alps and provide potential adaptation pathways.

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