During the afternoon of 29 June 2019, a Quasi Linear Convective System (QLCS) associated with a vigorous cold front impacted northern and central parts of the state of Victoria and southern parts of New South Wales resulting in damaging to destructive wind gusts and a number of possible tornadoes. A confirmed tornado with a path of at least 750 m tracked through hardwood bushland and a residential property in Axe Creek, Victoria, located approximately 12 km southeast of the regional city of Bendigo, resulting in the near-complete destruction of a family double brick veneer constructed home with damage consistent with an EF3 tornado intensity rating.

The meteorology of this high-impact event is described on several scales, from the synoptic-scale to mesoscale development of the QLCS and tornado. Uncommonly for an intense tornado generating environment, instability was negligible, in an atmosphere otherwise kinematically favourable. Strong upper-level dynamics associated with cyclonic vorticity advection on the eastern side of a transient, overturning cyclonic PV-anomaly are suggested to have enhanced pressure falls at the surface and vertical motion leading to sufficient charge separation to promote lightning in an otherwise saturated and marginally unstable environment, while providing a mechanism to further promote the vertical stretching of vorticity in a high Storm Relative Helicity environment.  

This event also highlights the limitations of conventional thunderstorm forecasting approaches including the use of normalised convective parameters which largely hinge upon thermodynamic instability, while illustrating the practical benefits of diagnosing the evolution and morphology of weather systems using the fundamental concepts of “PV thinking”.

Finally, a preliminary conditional tornado damage intensity derived from radar data is demonstrated that can assist in the nowcasting and potential improved warning of such events. The results of an on-the-ground damage assessment are also briefly presented.