In the last couple of decades the principal form of climate model projections has been based on transient climate simulations over the 21^st century under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. However, more recently, and especially in the wake of the Paris climate agreement, there has been a growing focus on projections for specified global warming levels, such as 2°C above pre-industrial.

In this presentation we will discuss some of the advantages and disadvantages of using global warming levels to form regional climate projections. We will present results on the different forms of uncertainty in climate projections and how they differ when using global warming levels compared with traditional scenario-based approaches. For example, we demonstrate that ensemble spread for late 21^st century projections is greater over most global land regions than it is for comparable global warming levels, however, earlier in the 21^st century the reverse is true with greater ensemble spread in global warming level projections. We will also discuss a planned project for Victorian climate projections under specified global warming levels.