Uncertainty in near-term global surface warming linked to tropical Pacific climate variability — Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
  1. Schedule
  2. 27(iii). Tropical climate variability: dynamics, teleconnections and impacts
  3. Uncertainty in near-term global surface warming linked to tropical Pacific climate variability

Uncertainty in near-term global surface warming linked to tropical Pacific climate variability (#173)

Mohammad Hadi Bordbar 1 , Matthew H. England 2 , Alex Sen Gupta 2 , Agus Santoso 2 , Andréa Taschetto 2 , Thomas Martin 3 , Wonsun Park 3 , Mojib Latif 3
  1. Leibniz-Institut für Ostseeforschung Warnemünde (IOW), Rostock, Germany, Rostock, MECKLENBURG VORPOMERN, Germany
  2. Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, , Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
  3. FB1, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Schleswig Holstein, Germany

Climate models generally simulate a long-term slowdown of the Pacific Walker Circulation in

a warming world. However, despite increasing greenhouse forcing, there was an unprecedented

intensification of the Pacific Trade Winds during 1992–2011, that co-occurred with a

temporary slowdown in global surface warming. Using ensemble simulations from three

different climate models starting from different initial conditions, we find a large spread in

projected 20-year globally averaged surface air temperature trends that can be linked to

differences in Pacific climate variability. This implies diminished predictive skill for global

surface air temperature trends over decadal timescales, to a large extent due to intrinsic

Pacific Ocean variability. We show, however, that this uncertainty can be considerably

reduced when the initial oceanic state is known and well represented in the model. In this

case, the spatial patterns of 20-year surface air temperature trends depend largely on the

initial state of the Pacific Ocean.

#amos2020