Wind spatial structure underpins ENSO’s oceanic warm water volume changes (#148)
This study demonstrates that the generalization of strong anomalous equatorial Pacific westerly (easterly) wind stress during El Niño (La Niña) events mostly display strong adjusted warm water volume (WWV) discharges (recharges) is often incorrect. Using ocean model simulations, we categorize the oceanic adjusted responses to strong anomalous equatorial winds into three categories: (i) transitioning (consistent with the above generalization); (ii) neutral; and (iii) persistent adjusted responses. During the entire 1980-2016 period only 35% of strong anomalous equatorial winds are followed by transitioning adjusted responses, while the remaining are followed by neutral (56%) or persistent (9%) adjusted responses. Moreover, 75% of the winds with transitioning adjusted responses are found during the pre-2000 period in agreement with the post-2000 decline of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction skill. The prominent neutral adjusted WWV response is shown to be largely excited by anomalous wind stress forcing with a weak curl (consistent with a higher ratio of off-equatorial to equatorial wind events) and weaker Rossby wave projection than the transitioning adjusted response. We also identify a prominent ENSO phase asymmetry where strong anomalous equatorial westerly winds (i.e., El Niño events) are roughly twice as likely to strongly discharge WWV than strong anomalous equatorial easterly winds (i.e., La Niña events) are to strongly recharge WWV. This ENSO phase asymmetry is consistent with El Niño events having a stronger tendency to be followed by La Niña events than vice versa and may be used to explain why long lead-time forecasts of La Niña events is possible.