INCORPORATING CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE INTO CATASTROPHE MODELS: EXAMPLES FROM AUSTRALIA’S LARGEST INSURER — Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
  1. Schedule
  2. 38(i). Catastrophe models and climate change: data needs and approaches in the Australasian region
  3. INCORPORATING CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE INTO CATASTROPHE MODELS: EXAMPLES FROM AUSTRALIA’S LARGEST INSURER

INCORPORATING CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE INTO CATASTROPHE MODELS: EXAMPLES FROM AUSTRALIA’S LARGEST INSURER (#138)

Bruce W Buckley 1 , Cindy Bruyere 2 , Greg Holland 2 , Andreas Prein 2 , Andrew Dyer 3 , Peter Chan 3 , Mark Leplastrier 3 , David Henderson 4
  1. Insurance Australia Group, Victoria Park, WESTERN AUSTRALIA, Australia
  2. C3WE, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
  3. Natural Perils, Reinsurance, Insurance Australia Group, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  4. Natural Perils, Reinsurance, Insurance Australia Group, Townsville, Qld, Australia

Insurers globally use Catastrophe Models to produce financial estimates of the potential losses for a range of natural disasters. Here we will show some examples of the approaches used by Australia’s largest insurer, the Insurance Australia Group, with assistance from the Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes, NCAR, USA, to use the current scientific findings of climate extremes in an era of climate change for weather extremes important to Australia.

 The use of model datasets such as the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble and Large Ensemble (LENS) applied to tropical cyclones will be highlighted and the need to also consider the older tropical cyclone record for Australia will also be mentioned. Approaches used to adjust river flood and severe convective thunderstorm risk estimates will also be discussed.

 The discussion will also highlight the problems and data limitations faced by the financial sector when trying to make these adjustments. Suggestions on ways to tackle these problems and data deficiencies will be given.

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