Ongoing greenhouse warming is hypothesised to inhibit an incipient ice age, and this seems to be supported by observations of Arctic sea ice and Antarctic ice mass loss, as well as glacier retreat. Whether greenhouse warming has already affected modes of tropical variability, such as El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole, both of which contribute to drought conditions and bushfire occurrences in Australia, remains unclear. Preceded by strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole, recent devastating Australian bushfires underscore potential risks associated with enhanced variability of these tropical modes. In this presentation, I will present emerging evidence that greenhouse warming is likely to increase frequency of strong El Niño and strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole events and discuss what difference the warming target of the Paris Agreement, if achieved, can make.