More intense tropical cyclones? What new satellite technologies can measure. — Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society

More intense tropical cyclones? What new satellite technologies can measure. (#37)

Joe Courtney 1 , Linda Paterson 1 , Thomas Meissner 2 , Alexis Mouche 3
  1. Bureau of Meteorology, West Perth, WA, Australia
  2. REMSS, Santa Rosa, California, USA
  3. IFREMER, Plouzane, France

New satellite technologies including Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and Soil-Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) are providing valuable input in estimating the intensity and structure of tropical cyclones. These are proving superior to traditional techniques such as Dvorak especially at the stronger end of the spectrum. 

SMAP is L-Band radiometer (1.4GHz) can resolve sea foam variations without being impacted by heavy rain so can resolve high wind speeds. SAR is a C-Band active microwave sensor that measures the backscattered intensity from the ocean at high resolution with a skill comparable to airborne SFMR (Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer). Unlike other active radar such as  scatterometers, SAR permits the combination of co- and cross-polarisation data to make possible the measurement of extreme winds. with an accuracy of about 10 per cent.

Two recent examples off northern Australia, Marcus (2018) and Veronica (2019) demonstrate how these new methods have been able to influence intensity estimates, notably those above operational estimates. In particular, the peak intensity of Marcus was increased from its operational maximum of 125kn to 135kn during the post-event best track process following the SMAP evidence of a peak at 137kn. This equalled the Australian-region record for the highest intensity, a record shared with TC Monica (2006).

The limitations in coverage, both spatially and temporally of the new availability of passes and timeliness presents a challenge to analysts. Additionally, the SAR data is not yet available operationally, although ESA's planned Sentinel-1C, 1-D and Sentinel-1 NexGen missions guarantee their future. 

Nevertheless, these along with other emerging technologies, will bring great benefits especially as their data get assimilated into NWP. It is likely that many of these newer measurements will result in higher intensities being detected and thus add an inhomogeneity to the TC record, potentially significant for consideration in climate change studies.

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